International followers of the American primary elections are confused. The politically observant Americans they know seem to be convinced the Democratic nomination is over, yet they continue to hear from the Beeb things like "If Hillary Clinton wins big in West Virginia, it will revive her hopes to win the nomination."
This of course is nonsense. There is no "if" at all about West Virginia. It's Hillary's base: Racist white voters like the ones interviewed this morning by Justin Webb. Please note that West Virginia is not representative of all of America...but that's not the point I'm after here. She will win West Virginia, and win with a higher percentage than in any state she's won since Arkansas.
Last week, after Obama's big win in North Carolina, and Clinton's very narrow win in Indiana (less than 1% when the final results were known), many of my international friends seemed to scoff at my insistence that the race was over, putting it down to my Obama-tism. All they had heard on the BBC that morning was simply that Obama won NC; Clinton won Indiana. Not a single word that could be uttered in a maths class.
What really matters, of course, is not who wins or loses, but what percentage they win by, and how closely that matches expectations, which, of course, is what influences superdelegates.
Expectations were high for Clinton last Tuesday—there was talk, after reliable polls (even the Obama camp's internal polls) had her up in Indiana by 12%. There was even more reckless talk of her winning North Carolina—but she instead lost by 14 points.
This is why the Democratic primary race was officially declared over by the pundits on TV that night—they are hooked on expectations, more than math, which hasn't looked kindly on Clinton for a while. Since Texas and Ohio, where Clinton won more narrowly than she needed to in order to stay mathematically viable, the chances of her winning the nomination have been virtually nil. Now they are truly nil and that won't change no matter how many racists turn out for her big she wins in West Virginia today.
Yet this fact is lost on many voters and international watchers who hear things like "Hillary Clinton's hopes to win the nomination will be revived" if she wins in West Virginia.
The Democratic Primary election, with its superdelegates, its expectations, its conflicting polls, is just too nuanced for foreign media outlets unfamiliar with the process to understand. If you want news of the elections in Zimbabwe, BBC's your best bet (although, maybe there's a Zimbabwean blogger out there who begs to differ...). But if you want to know who's won the Democratic party's nomination, tune into CNN or your favorite blog.
Oh, and if you're a voter in West Virginia, please understand that you have convinced the rest of the world that people with thick southern drawls are unapologetically racist. Thanks a lot. Next time, at least try to hide it, okay? Because despite what Bill and Hillary Clinton may be telling you, it is not okay to think your race—and your voters—are superior to any other.