I heard the news at 5 a.m., as BBC World Service reported that Hillary Clinton had "won the nomination". The fear in my now-wide awake heart faded as I realized their mistake. It's cute how they don't really understand what we're up to in America, isn't it?
Anyway, my quick two pence on what happened:
Women got mad, almost as mad as Hillary in the debate. The press, and one candidate in particular, were ganging up in classic misogynistic style. Women rush to each others' side when one of us is attacked. I don't know; it's like a jungle thing. We defend. We empathize. And we vote.
The polls weren't wrong so much as they didn't predict the undecideds. After seeing the media anoint a candidate, the large chunk of voters still on the fence jumped off on Hillary's side. That's New Hampshire. Live free or die, baby.
The media tried to coronate Hillary and Iowa rejected that. Then they tried to coronate Obama and NH rejected that. I doubt seriously they'll try to coronate John Edwards.
Old people, having been shown up in Iowa by the whippersnappers, decided to show up in record numbers. (Don't look for that headline, though I hear that's the buzz on Facebook.)
Independents, seeing signs of life in the McCain campaign, decided to give the old man a chance. (Independents can vote in either race, and are fiercely independent. So they say.)
Michael Whouley. There's a reason this political operative is feared among Democrats. He elected to sit out Iowa and work for Hillary in NH. His legend will only grow.
UPDATE: How could I possibly have overlooked this one? Absentee ballots. Absentee voting started in December. Getting your supporters to vote early (though maybe not often) is crucial to any campaign (especially one trying to hang on to a lead), and was a primary focus in the '04 New Mexico Dean campaign. I would be happy to give a lecture on this to anyone in the Obama camp.
