Global warming can't come soon enough.
John Amato at Crooks and Liars posted an interview with Lawrence O'Donnell, one of the savviest political observers around. While he agrees with me that Condoleezza Rice is the likeliest replacement for Dick Cheney, (who, for those of you who don't subscribe to Conspiracy Weekly, will inevitably resign) he also thinks there's a distinct possibility that Colin Powell would come in from the cold to take the job, with the understanding that he would be the next Republican nominee for President.
O'Donnell talks about the enormous popularity Powell enjoys from the American public. He's absolutely right. I was talking to a woman last night who basically said her vote for George Bush was really a vote for Powell.
Not only would Powell be the most formidable opposition the Democrats could face in '08, but a Powell vice presidency would immediately send Bush's popularity soaring. I don't want to give them any ideas, but the best thing they could do to deflect the damage wrought by incoming indictments would be to redirect the public's attention. Colin Powell moving into Dick Cheney's office would move the Rove/Libby story to page nine. Colin and Alma would be Washington's new power couple, while George and Condi eat pretzels and watch West Wing in the East Wing.
And there's the jury problem too, which Colin, as an African-American, would solve as easily as Rice, thus holding out the possibility of a hung jury around the time Americans head to the voting booths next November.
Despite these advantages, I don't imagine he's measuring the Naval Observatory garage for his Volvos. Why?
Because without Rove advising him, Bush tends to go with his gut, but he's essentially gutless and prefers a loyal wingman. Or woman. Colin Powell simply doesn't pass the loyalty test. George Bush values loyalty over ideology, over poll numbers, over anything, and Condoleezza Rice plays loyalty the way she plays Rachmaninoff.
Powell, on the other hand, has had a hard time hiding his disdain for the neanderthals neocons. Now his chief of staff has spoken out harshly against the administration, and so far Colin hasn't refuted a word of it.
And Powell has been known to buck his commander in chief, when the commander in chief is named Clinton. Read David Halberstam's War in the Time of Peace for an account of his balking on the Balkans. As an active duty military officer, he also bucked his president politically, on the gays-in-the military issue.
But those medals on his chest act as Teflon, with Democrats unwilling to play swift boat politics. Despite his contemptible performance at the UN, Colin Powell is still America's favorite untested politician, and if he decides to stop tinkering on his Volvos and rejoin the administration, Democrats can start measuring themselves for subzero parkas. We'll be out in the cold a long, long time.
