What Do I Know?

Give My 2 Cents to Nate Silver

If you're wondering what my thoughts are on the stimulus package being prepared by the new administration (and just because I haven't won any prizes in economics, don't for a minute think I don't know a macro from a micro and a whatsit from a widget) then hold on, I'm about to tell you.

Go here and read my thoughts, as channeled by Nate Silver. Although I would have gone with the stale "good cop/bad cop" analogy myself—Nate obviously spent his youth watching Bob Barker sell washing machines while I watched Mannix reruns.

I don't know that Nate has won any economics prizes either, but he's spot on when he talks politics. I swear, his post-election analysis is better than his pre-game, which was pretty damn good. He nails the apparent Senate opposition to Obama's stimulus plan here:

Imagine instead that Obama had started out at $1.3 trillion, assuming that the conservatives in the Senate would negotiate him down. Then we have some big, old-fashioned brouhaha about economic philosophy, with Obama and the Senate Democrats lining up against the Blue Dogs and the Republicans. This strikes me as a considerably more dangerous negotiation, because while the Senate Democrats can set the ceiling if Obama starts too low, there is nobody really there to set the floor if he starts too high -- the Republicans have no real imperative to compromise on any stimulus. Public sentiment, moreover, which now favors the stimulus, might easily have turned against it if there was some sticker shock on the initial price tag, and once public sentiment turns against something like this, it can be hard to put back into the bottle.

In fact, now that I think about it, 2 cents isn't enough. Make it 2 trillion, and talk me down.

And also now that I'm thinking about it—are Mannix reruns airing these days? I loved that show.

Friday Cow Blogging

"Hey, get a room!"

Here I am, making friends with a cow on our walk the other day.

Please ignore what's going on in the background.

Why the Senate Should Not Seat Roland Burris

It has nothing to do with the scandal-plagued governor who appointed him. Apparently, while Roland Burris was attorney general in Illinois, he sought to execute a man he knew was innocent.

While state attorney general in 1992, Burris aggressively sought the death penalty for Rolando Cruz, who twice was convicted of raping and murdering a 10-year-old girl in the Chicago suburb of Naperville. The crime took place in 1983.

But by 1992, another man had confessed to the crime, and Burris’ own assistant attorney general was pleading with Burris to drop the case, then on appeal before the Illinois Supreme Court.

Burris refused. He was running for governor.

I learned this via Andrew Sabl at TRBC, who learned it from a reader apparently. As he says, Burris deserves to be disbarred, not appointed to the U.S. Senate.

I'm calling my senators today. As Andrew says, perhaps the Constitution requires that he be seated, but that doesn't mean that he's morally fit to serve.

Perhaps the impeachment that should be going forward in Illinois is of their newest senator.

Reading, Not Blogging

I am not blogging tonight because I'm going to do this. Got two new ones to try today.

And yes, that's His Hotness, Matthew Macfadyen, in that image. (wipes drool off keyboard) Which reminds me: Does anyone remember who I loaned my DVD of that movie to?

Barack and Baby

All together now: Awwwwww!

(Via Ben Smith)

UPDATE: My dog is chewing the Barack Obama dog toy someone gave me before the election. She is obviously jealous that I posted a photo of another dog with her man.

Where's Some Global Warming When You Need It?

I am too cold to blog. My fingers are still tingly and numb. I spent the day walking around the antique fair in Ardingly, where I observed the effect of the economic downturn first hand. No one was buying anything, including me. I literally couldn't count change with my frozen fingers. I passed up a deal on a 19C Windsor chair for £35. Instead I went to the indoor marquee where I bought a marmalade pot for £7. But the guy had to dig the change out of my coin purse, since I couldn't feel anything through two layers of gloves.

So now the only thing to do is make soup. I have kale, onions, white beans, and a jar of sundried tomatoes I'd forgotten about. I will probably chop my fingers off. Check back for blood later.

It's Like Magic!

The group that brought you "Barack the Magic Negro" are meeting to decide who deserves to be the next head of the Republican National Committee. Fortunately, Dave Weigel is liveblogging the action. Here's a sample question:

Next question: How many guns does everyone own? Blackwell owns seven, which he uses “very well,” and Saltsman rapid-fire lists the guns he owns, ending with a 30 ought 6. “And Ken, I’ll take you on any time.” He means hunting, not dueling, I think.

In another round, candidate Mike Duncan suggests bringing young people into the party by Twittering.

See? Barack wasn't magic; he just knew how to use Twitter!

If tweeting doesn't work, they can always just wave their magic guns around. That'll win over the young 'uns.

Windsor Great Park

Despite the fact that today was just about the coldest day of the winter, with temperatures hovering below freezing, we braved the cold and went to Windsor Great Park. The park belongs to the Crown, technically anyway: it's part of the Crown Estate, a 6 billion pound property portfolio (which also includes any large fish found in British waters). It's also known as The Royal Landscape, but everyone calls it Windsor Great Park.

The Great Park is indeed great: 1000 acres of parkland, gardens, and lakes, including Virginia Water. If you've ever flown into Heathrow, you've seen it from your window seat. It's right under the flight path. We watched dozens of aircraft take off during the two and a half hours we spent in the park.

The Obelisk Pond and Virginia Water, the largest man-made body of water in the British Isles, were almost completely frozen. While walking around Virginia Water, we heard a strange reverberating sound. It turned out it was someone on the other side, hurling ice chunks across the frozen lake. The sound echoed as the improvised hockey puck skated across the ice. It sounded like a strange bird calling its mate on the other side, who then answered when we tossed an ice chunk across the lake.

Fun times.

I don't think I remember a colder day here. My hands were so frozen I couldn't take them out of my pockets, despite two layers of gloves. So I didn't get many photos. But the dog had a new experience: walking on frozen water. She walked out across the ice, about ten feet before we panicked and called her back. We took some video footage with my camera. I'll try to figure out how to load it onto the blog—that may have to wait until Daughter Number Two returns from Paris. She's the video expert in the family.

Meanwhile, here are a few  photos.

A piece of bread frozen under the ice fascinates the dog.

 

Virginia Water

 

Jesus Dog walks on water.

They Said That Day Would Never Come

I was checking this blog's stats this morning, and noticed someone Googling "Iowa is the best state", landing on this post:

Iowa is the coolest state ever!

Of course, this was the morning after the Iowa caucuses, which propelled Barack Obama into the Democratic nomination, and eventually, the presidency itself. My reaction was typically flippant, yet I was actually overcome with pride—not for Iowa, but for my country, the only place where the son of a Kenyan father and a Kansan mother could dare to hope to become president.

Then I realized, it was exactly one year ago today that I woke to this news. What a year it's been, eh?

A Hundred Million Cat's Eyes

I'd like to endorse James Wimberley's plan for a hundred million cat's eyes as part of the U.S. stimulus package.

What are cat's eyes? They're reflective dots embedded on roadsides and between lanes, far better than similar reflective devices used in the US. Until James pointed it out, I didn't realize the British reflective dot technology was superior, but I can vouch for its effectiveness.

A couple of years ago, cat's eyes were installed on the A road near my house, making driving at night much easier. I know where to exit onto the slip road by eying the reflective dots, which change from red to green at the point where the slip road is accessible. Before, I had no idea where to exit until I was right upon it, causing me to slow down to a crawl even though I knew the road very well. (I'm practically blind at night, and really shouldn't be driving at all.)

I can easily see how they'd save lives, but the article points out how they'd save money as well. Traffic accidents are very costly.

Now, if we could only get Britain to introduce school zones to slow traffic down near schools, I'd be much happier. Meanwhile, I'll continue with my practice of giving speeders along Mill Lane dirty looks.

Friday Cow Blogging

We passed these cows the other day just as they were eating their dinner. They live in Mill End, not far from Marlow, and just a few hundred yards from the Thames.

Mill End is a hamlet, which means it doesn't have a pub or a church. But it does have cows. We passed around three different herds on our walk on Sunday.

As I was taking photos of these cows, the owners left the farm in their car, wondering, I'm sure, what I was doing snapping photos of their herd. Little did they know that I was the famous Friday Cow Blogger.

Is It Party Time Yet?

The dog has added a new word to her vocabulary: Party!

The Ultimate Navel Gazing New Year's Post

Peaceable Imperatrix has given me something to blog about! These days, that's an accomplishment, since all I seem to have time for is cleaning, cooking, and walking the dog. But with six sleeping twenty-somethings upstairs, who'll wake up hungry in a few hours, I need to do this fast. Here goes:

1. What did you do in 2008 that you’d never done before?
Visit Andorra.

2. Did you keep your new year’s resolutions, and will you make more for next year?
I don't recall making any. I think I was consumed by the elections this time last year.

3. Did anyone close to you give birth?
Define close. Lots of nieces/nephews had babies, including my brother's youngest son, but I'm not very close, geographically, to them. I'm really not in baby mode these days, and I can't get too excited about the idea of ever having grandchildren.

4. Did anyone close to you die?
No. Thankfully.

5. What countries did you visit?
The Netherlands, France, Luxembourg, Germany, Scotland, Czech Republic, France again, Andorra, Belgium. I think that's it.

6. What would you like to have in 2009 that you lacked in 2008?
A Mini.

7. What dates from 2008 will remain etched upon your memory, and why?
January 3 and November 4. First Iowa, and then the United States, decided that the best candidate for president was a man with a funny name.

8. What was your biggest achievement of the year?
Throwing a party on short notice. Seriously. I'm not good at stuff like that, and tend to obsess for weeks whenever I have a party. This one was better than the one I held last year by far.

9. What was your biggest failure?
I don't think I sent anything out to a single publisher. I did finally get a rejection from my last submission, which counts as a failure.

10. Did you suffer illness or injury?
Frozen shoulder. That turned into about six months of physical therapy, and inspired my return to the gym once I got the okay to do some easy weight lifting.

11. What was the best thing you bought?
My Georgian chest of drawers. Close second: my 17th century Bible box with my daughter's initials, reversed.

12. Whose behavior merited celebration?
My daughters, both of whom are working and going to school at the same time, and making excellent progress.

13. Whose behavior made you appalled and depressed?
Hillary Clinton.

14. Where did most of your money go?
See number 11. Also number 5.

15. What did you get really, really, really excited about?
The elections.

16. What song will always remind you of 2008?
That stupid Ting Ting's song "That's not my name" that made my daughter and me both reach for the radio dial to change the station. But first we'd laugh, with mutually shared loathing.

17. Compared to this time last year, are you:_a) happier or sadder?_b) thinner or fatter?_c) richer or poorer?
a) Happier. I've adjusted to not having my daughters home every day.
b) Neither: I may have gained a pound, but I'm also becoming more fit. I don't weigh.
c) Both: the pound has shrunk; it's now worth less than $1.50, which makes me feel very wealthy. Yet the nosediving stock market and housing prices have made our investments worth less. So also poorer.

18. What do you wish you’d done more of?
Travel.

19. What do you wish you’d done less of?
Surfing the internet.

20. How did you spend Christmas?
Commiserating with a sick daughter.

21. Did you fall in love in 2008?
In a metaphorical sense, I fell in love with every place I went. (Well, except for Slough, but you know what I mean.) And sitting on a balcony in Andorra drinking Rioja with my husband was the most thrilling moment I've ever had.

22. What was your favorite TV program?
I don't watch TV very much at all, except for the news, but one program I love is Top Gear. I think I watched it once or twice in 2008. Also Hollyoaks, which I faithfully watched for my daughter, at least for a few weeks, to report on who got killed off/broke up/developed personality disorder/caught HIV/got preggers/stole a baby/etc.

23. Do you hate anyone now that you didn’t hate this time last year?
A few politicians whom I have vowed to forget.

24. What was the best book you read?
One result of my addiction to campaign coverage was a lack of reading for pleasure rather than knowledge. Many of the books I read were for class, and they put me right to sleep. Others were travel guides, which I enjoy reading as long as they're The Rough Guide. I read His Dark Materials and absolutely hated The Amber Spyglass. Didn't get around to reading too many novels, and those I did read weren't very memorable.

25. What was your greatest musical discovery?
There was a song on the radio one day with the lyric "I saw a UFO and no one believed me." I've never heard it again. And no one believes me when I tell them about it.

26. What did you want and get?
See numbers 5 and 11.

27. What did you want and not get?
A Mini.

28. What was your favorite film of this year?
A DVD we watched in France, about a boy who needs a father, called Dear Frankie. Get it if you can find it; it's a really sweet film.

29. What did you do on your birthday, and how old were you?
I really don't remember. I think I'm 46. Now I remember: I was sick with some odd illness, running a fever for about six days. We walked up to the wood and that was about all I could manage that day. Lost my appetite totally, which affected Number 17 b.

30. What one thing would have made your year immeasurably more satisfying?
Being able to accomplish more. I blame Barack Obama and my fascination with the election. But his election also made 2008 one of the most satisfying of my life.

31. How would you describe your personal fashion concept in 2008?
Decide between black and brown, and alternate each day. But it's good to have a little variety in your wardrobe, so sometimes I'll throw on a grey sweater just to keep people guessing.

32. What kept you sane?
My dog.

33. Which celebrity/public figure did you fancy the most?
I echo Imperatrix: Barack Obama.

34. What political issue stirred you the most?
All of them—the war in Iraq, the environment, the economy, healthcare being the biggest. I'm especially attuned to the reputation of the U.S. around the world, so improving the United States' international relations is important to me, but that sort of encompasses all the rest.

35. Who did you miss?
My mom. My daughters. My friends who moved away.

36. Who was the best new person you met?
My friend who I've started walking with some mornings. She's a minister, and we have interesting philosophical discussions as well as just regular talk. Also, on the way to our meeting point, I stop and talk to a neighbor's gardener from South Africa. He's shared some really interesting stories—he was imprisoned in SA after speaking out—and has a unique view of race relations and Obama's victory. I have to plan an extra few minutes for our chats on Fridays, as I walk to meet my friend.

37. Tell us a valuable life lesson you learned in 2008.
Time management is very important. Sadly, I only learned this recently and haven't quite got the knack.

38. Quote a song lyric that sums up your year.
Listen to me, oh no, I never say anything at all. (From the aforementioned Ting Ting's song.)