Give My 2 Cents to Nate Silver

If you're wondering what my thoughts are on the stimulus package being prepared by the new administration (and just because I haven't won any prizes in economics, don't for a minute think I don't know a macro from a micro and a whatsit from a widget) then hold on, I'm about to tell you.

Go here and read my thoughts, as channeled by Nate Silver. Although I would have gone with the stale "good cop/bad cop" analogy myself—Nate obviously spent his youth watching Bob Barker sell washing machines while I watched Mannix reruns.

I don't know that Nate has won any economics prizes either, but he's spot on when he talks politics. I swear, his post-election analysis is better than his pre-game, which was pretty damn good. He nails the apparent Senate opposition to Obama's stimulus plan here:

Imagine instead that Obama had started out at $1.3 trillion, assuming that the conservatives in the Senate would negotiate him down. Then we have some big, old-fashioned brouhaha about economic philosophy, with Obama and the Senate Democrats lining up against the Blue Dogs and the Republicans. This strikes me as a considerably more dangerous negotiation, because while the Senate Democrats can set the ceiling if Obama starts too low, there is nobody really there to set the floor if he starts too high -- the Republicans have no real imperative to compromise on any stimulus. Public sentiment, moreover, which now favors the stimulus, might easily have turned against it if there was some sticker shock on the initial price tag, and once public sentiment turns against something like this, it can be hard to put back into the bottle.

In fact, now that I think about it, 2 cents isn't enough. Make it 2 trillion, and talk me down.

And also now that I'm thinking about it—are Mannix reruns airing these days? I loved that show.